Goldman Sachs (GS): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 13, 2026
On its Apr 13, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Goldman Sachs said 12 of the 13 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncertainty | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 90%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:50, Uncertainty | – |
| Volatility | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 75%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:44, Volatility | – |
| IPO | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:19, IPO | – |
| Recession | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 18%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 22:49, Recession | – |
| Geopolitical | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 57%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 7:50, Geopolitical | – |
| Regulation | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 27%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 6:26, Regulation | – |
| Buyback | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 69%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:17, Buyback | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 42%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 7:56, Inflation | – |
| Tailwind | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 44:10, Tailwind | – |
| Trading | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 59%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:07:13, Trading | – |
| Marcus | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:36, Marcus | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 29%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 28:43, Pipeline | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Volatility”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…as the quarter progressed, the macro environment started to weigh on sentiment. Volatility increased meaningfully amid concerns around AI-driven disruption in sectors like software, heightened…
…flows. The consistent inflow momentum throughout the quarter, including during the heightened volatility in March, underscores the strength of our client relationships built on trust…
…in addition to the increase in market risk RWAs amid higher market volatility, consumed a portion of our excess capital. Additionally, we returned $6.4 billion…
…I don't have a crystal ball to predict short-term uncertainty and short-term volatility, but I have a high degree of confidence when I look out…
…those activity levels would reverse. Despite all of the various types of volatility we've seen over the last quarter, in the last number of years,…
Where the listed words were said
…differentiates Goldman Sachs and what clients rely on, particularly in periods of uncertainty. We pride ourselves on being a trusted advisor and providing timely and…
…know, is a calculation that has a rolling 30-day contributor based on volatility. Volatility across rates and commodities in the first quarter went up. That…
…$26 billion sale to Devon Energy. While market conditions tempered execution for IPOs and sponsor activity broadly, we believe that activity levels will rebound once…
…normal credit cycle, meaning a meaningful slowdown in the economy or a recession. Whenever you have a meaningful slowdown in the economy or a recession,…
…agenda in the U.S. are powerful forces. At the same time, the geopolitical landscape remains very complex, and the ultimate impact of higher energy prices…
…risk-adjusted returns for clients. Let me spend a moment on capital and regulation more broadly. We've been consistent in our view that a strong, well-capitalized…
Of buybacks. The balance sheet growth was largely in support of those client activities that I just referenced. Separately, you're right, we did have significant…
…that probably will be a headwind in some of these areas, particularly inflation trends, as we get further into the second and the third quarter.…
…weak sponsor activity. It's a big, broad, diversified business. Obviously, there's a tailwind that's coming when sponsor activity turns on. It will turn on. These…
…take a multi-year trend. Market caps around the world are expanding. Equity trading activity and the participation by a broad range of our clients has…
…little bit, particularly in March. I do think there's a very full pipeline, and at the end of the day, equity markets have been extremely…
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