Eli Lilly (LLY): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 4, 2026
On its Feb 4, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Eli Lilly said 15 of the 20 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zepbound | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phase 3 | Yes | 20 | 20 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 15 | 16 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Mounjaro | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Medicare | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Impact | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Alzheimers | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Vial | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| LillyDirect | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inluriyo | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 39%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Ventyx | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Walmart | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Texas | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Lebanon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Parkinsons | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Pennsylvania | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
13 matches for “Mounjaro”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and entered new markets as we completed the international rollouts of both Mounjaro and Kisanlo. We generated positive clinical data in more than 25 phase…
…revenue. US revenue increased 43% in Q4, driven by volume growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound, partially offset by a 7% decline in price. Revenue growth…
…plateau, as reflected in US trends. Finally, in cardiometabolic health, Zepbound and Mounjaro both delivered strong results. Outside the US, positive uptake trends of Mounjaro…
…and nearly 50% of new Zepbound prescriptions in Q4. In the US, Mounjaro expanded market leadership in the type two diabetes incretin market, exiting the…
…later life cycle medicines. Pricing outside the US will be impacted by Mounjaro's inclusion on China's National Reimbursement Drug List for type two diabetes. We…
Where the listed words were said
…platform reached 1 million patients in 2025. Our most popular offering, the Zepbound self-pay vials, now makes up one-third of new patient starts who start…
…expect R&D expenses will scale up in 2026. We have 36 active Phase III programs in our pipeline and plan to initiate even more new…
…and to launch in most international markets during 2027. We anticipate new Medicare access to obesity medicines will become effective no later than July 1,…
…congrats on all the progress here. Can I just ask about international Mounjaro? This seemed like this was a very significant upside driver, at least…
…level, Lucas. Just wondering if you can talk about what's embedded for Medicare volume ramp in the back half of the year and how that…
…Across the P&L, there are pushes and pulls that we anticipate will impact our performance margin expectations. We expect gross margin will be relatively stable…
…published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology. We submitted these results to regulatory authorities to potentially enable the use of pirtobrutinib in earlier lines of…
…$109 million, driven by overall market growth, increased awareness and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, as well as increased prescriber adoption based on Kisanlo's clinical profile.…
…was a slight impact in Q4 driven by the NRDL listing in China effective January 1, 2026, which slightly impacts the purchasing pattern in China…
…as well as we've seen an increase in utilization of even Zepbound vial at the end of the year when we implemented improved entry price…
…There is a bolus of patients that we have nowadays in the Lilly Direct business that we believe are also Medicare patients. So expect that…
…SiteOne, Adverum, and the upcoming acquisition of Ventix. We continue investing in artificial intelligence to discover and develop new medicines. In addition to our new…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/eli-lilly:2026-02-04:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=eli-lilly:2026-02-04:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP