Eli Lilly (LLY): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 4, 2026
On its Feb 4, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Eli Lilly said 15 of the 20 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zepbound | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phase 3 | Yes | 20 | 20 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 15 | 16 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Mounjaro | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Medicare | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Impact | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Alzheimers | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Vial | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| LillyDirect | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inluriyo | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 39%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Ventyx | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Walmart | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Texas | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Lebanon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Parkinsons | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Pennsylvania | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “LillyDirect”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…There is a bolus of patients that we have nowadays in the Lilly Direct business that we believe are also Medicare patients. So expect that…
…platforms are on the lines as we've done in the US with Lilly Direct, where we are providing opportunity for patients both to seek start…
…globally. Obviously, we've seen that happen in obesity. What we've built within Lilly Direct has a pretty significant scaled direct-to-consumer platform that helps address some…
…kinds of things. All that is in our future, and I think Lilly Direct, direct discussion, out-of-pocket business, all enables those things. It's pretty interesting…
Where the listed words were said
…platform reached 1 million patients in 2025. Our most popular offering, the Zepbound self-pay vials, now makes up one-third of new patient starts who start…
…Mounjaro and Kisanlo. We generated positive clinical data in more than 25 phase three trials, including registrational trials to support two new incretins, Orforglipron and…
…government access agreement for obesity medicines, updated direct-to-patient Zepbound pricing, and lower Medicaid prices for later life cycle medicines. Pricing outside the US will be…
…revenue. US revenue increased 43% in Q4, driven by volume growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound, partially offset by a 7% decline in price. Revenue growth…
…and to launch in most international markets during 2027. We anticipate new Medicare access to obesity medicines will become effective no later than July 1,…
…we share our 2026 financial guidance and highlight key factors that will impact our financial outlook. We expect revenue to be between $80 billion and…
…published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology. We submitted these results to regulatory authorities to potentially enable the use of pirtobrutinib in earlier lines of…
…$109 million, driven by overall market growth, increased awareness and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, as well as increased prescriber adoption based on Kisanlo's clinical profile.…
…was a slight impact in Q4 driven by the NRDL listing in China effective January 1, 2026, which slightly impacts the purchasing pattern in China…
…US total prescription growth for Zepbound was robust, both in auto-injectors and vials. We are encouraged to see sustained growth uptake of Zepbound vials, which…
…for people with Medicaid in 2027. Within revenue, we anticipate Eblis, Jayperca, Inlureo, Kisanlo, and Omvo will all contribute to growth, whereas late lifecycle products…
…SiteOne, Adverum, and the upcoming acquisition of Ventix. We continue investing in artificial intelligence to discover and develop new medicines. In addition to our new…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/eli-lilly:2026-02-04:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=eli-lilly:2026-02-04:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP