Chipotle (CMG): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 3, 2026
On its Feb 3, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Chipotle said 9 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 13 | 15 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Al Pastor | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Promotion | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 81%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supply Chain | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Carne Asada | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 78%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Chipotle Lane / Chipotlane | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 89%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Transaction Growth | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 85%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Share Purchase | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 50%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Honey Chicken | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Autocado | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
15 matches for “Inflation”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…measured approach to pricing but do not expect it will fully offset inflation in the near term as we remain committed to delivering exceptional value…
…of menu price, lower dairy prices, and cost of sales efficiencies offset inflation, primarily in beef, and chicken, as well as the impact of tariffs.…
…to be around 15 basis points. Overall, we anticipate cost of sales inflation to be higher in the first half of the year, and will…
…lower performance-based bonuses were more than offset by lower volumes, and wage inflation. For Q1, we expect our labor cost to be in the high…
…some pricing coming in. You said you're gonna narrow the gap versus inflation. But just any comment on where the full year might shake out…
Where the listed words were said
…be about 70 basis points of impact in the first quarter. While inflation is closer to about 4%. So just then and there, that's about…
…more reasons to visit Chipotle. This will include the return of Chicken Al Pastor next week, which is the most celebrated limited-time offer in history,…
…with incidence of extra protein increasing 35% and our recent double protein promotion achieving a record digital sales day. When I said that we will…
…that combined with other initiatives that we have identified, whether it's in supply chain, or in labor, as we make this reinvestment in the business…
Hi, Sara. It's Scott. Thank you for the question. So carne asada did perform as it relates to incidents just as well as it did…
…consistent with last year. And we opened 132 new restaurants, including 97 Chipotlanes as well as seven additional partner-operated restaurants. As we move into 2026,…
…pace and sequence these growth layers to provide a long path for transaction growth for years to come. We also see the group occasion as…
…During the quarter, the board authorized an additional $1.8 billion to our share purchase authorization and at the end of the quarter, had $1.7 billion…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/chipotle:2026-02-03:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=chipotle:2026-02-03:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP