Goldman Sachs (GS): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 15, 2026
On its Jan 15, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Goldman Sachs said 8 of the 11 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyback | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 39%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 14:15, Buyback | – |
| Uncertainty | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 26:03, Uncertainty | – |
| Charge Off / Charge-Off | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 47:38, Charge Off / Charge-Off | – |
| Volatility | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 26:06, Volatility | – |
| Trading | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 50%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 42:30, Trading | – |
| Geopolitical | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 26:04, Geopolitical | – |
| Marcus | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 24%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 22:52, Marcus | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 20%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:02:17, Inflation | – |
| Regulation | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Recession | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “Trading”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…of the spectrum when I talk to investors, given that the stock trading, given the performance you've had, and two structural things seem to be…
…anyone, we are mindful of the price at which our equity is trading. But we're also trying to take, you know, a strategic long-term approach.…
…the financing opportunity, you noted it was less than 20% of Goldman's trading revenue. It was 40% at some of your larger money center peers.…
…business mix desire rate. If you look at the fourth-quarter revenue mix, trading 50%, IB 20, you know, AWM 25, dominant share, great growth. If…
Where the listed words were said
…our dividend, and returning excess capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks. We see meaningful opportunities to deploy capital across our franchise. This includes…
…remain mindful that the operating environment can shift quickly. Economic growth, policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments, and market volatility are factors we continue to monitor closely.…
…marked to market. The performance contributors will obviously be, you know, NII, charge-offs, operating expenses, etcetera. I think we'd observe from a seasonality perspective and…
…to wealth management clients were partially offset by NIM compression in the Marcus deposit portfolio. Incentive fees for the quarter were $181 million, bringing our…
…very concerted effort to constrain the growth of fees, which may be inflation-linked, or may be, you know, substitutes for other types of work. And…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/goldman-sachs:2026-01-15:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=goldman-sachs:2026-01-15:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP