Jamie Dimon: National Defense Forum, Dec 7, 2025
At the keynote on Dec 7, 2025, Jamie Dimon said 9 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 4 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 2 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innovation | Yes | 1 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense Spending / Defense Budget | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stockpile | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
2 matches for “National Security”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…was before World War I. Everybody out for themselves. Everyone's got different national security interests, whether it's food or energy or water. Uh and you…
Where the listed words were said
…and all of our medical ingredients come from or 85% come from China and we've written about it we've talked about it we we're quite…
…on their safety nets. Uh but they've driven business out. They've driven investment out. They've driven uh uh innovation out. It's kind of coming back.…
…That's a very big question that and that that is what both economic and military is just it's just America we were like a consistent…
…do this he needs workers who are experts in you know advanced manufacturing, welding and things like that. So, and part of the effort should…
…have moving tectonic plates. You've seen you've heard it spoken about it's AI the enemies in the satellite up above and in your computer systems…
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