TBPN: Episode, Nov 6, 2025
On the Nov 6, 2025 episode of TBPN, 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction Market | Yes | 10 | 16 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sports | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Token / Tokenization | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | No | 0 | 26 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Football | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retirement | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
16 matches for “Prediction Market”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…that we've had for a long time, equities, options, crypto, but then prediction markets have just been ripping. Okay. You know, we've we've been doubling…
options, same day expiry. And I think prediction markets are a continuation of that because you're starting to see markets for stocks and whether they're…
…I mean, I think that initially, before the presidential election last year, prediction markets were part of our 2026 plan. And we were planning on…
…that changed everything, and it was the Supreme Court decision allowing presidential prediction markets. And we jumped on that. As soon as that result came…
…story is people thought of it as an election only thing, but prediction markets are much broader. We now have over a thousand contracts on…
Where the listed words were said
…event or a political event or an election, you're going to those prediction markets as a more accurate source of information, in many cases, accurate…
…go up or down. And I think we're moving in that direction. Tokenization is is is solving a lot of the technical problems with that.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-11-06:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-11-06:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP