TBPN: Episode, Nov 6, 2025
On the Nov 6, 2025 episode of TBPN, 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction Market | Yes | 10 | 16 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sports | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Token / Tokenization | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | No | 0 | 26 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Football | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retirement | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
1 match for “Gold”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…And we were planning on offering futures out rights, like oil and gold and all the standard futures contracts, and we thought, well, prediction markets…
Where the listed words were said
…that we've had for a long time, equities, options, crypto, but then prediction markets have just been ripping. Okay. You know, we've we've been doubling…
…A lot a lot of of people used to play the presidential election Yeah. And have a thesis there that they would play by trading…
…Super Bowl, which we had to pull back, but then we relaunched sports with March Madness, and it's just been on a tear ever since.…
…go up or down. And I think we're moving in that direction. Tokenization is is is solving a lot of the technical problems with that.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-11-06:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-11-06:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP