TBPN: Episode, Oct 22, 2025
On the Oct 22, 2025 episode of TBPN, 3 of the 19 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 19 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
19 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 19- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin / BTC | Yes | 19 | 24 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Exchange | Yes | 7 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DeFi | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liquidity 4+ times | No | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| HIP3 3+ times | No | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Binance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CZ / Changpeng Zhao | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas Fee | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| L1 / Layer One | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SOLA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Builder codes 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crash | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prediction market | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solana | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| USDH | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Aster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Liquidation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Phantom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…You know, it's like, not your keys, not your coins. And Yep. We had strayed very far from the original ethos of Satoshi and Bitcoin.
…more later, but, it's a blockchain. It's not just not just an exchange. But Yeah. The I guess it's it's best known as the place…
…were a small team doing trading in crypto, and we're looking at DeFi and CeFi and had already kind of a sense that we wanted…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-10-22:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-10-22:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP