Will Lisa Su say “TSMC / Taiwan”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Lisa Su said “TSMC / Taiwan” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 28, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; May 28, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lisa Su
TSMC / Taiwan
- Probability
- 66% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
I was 17 years old, born in Taiwan, raised in Queens, and I was pretty sure I was good at math. Then, of course, I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | TSMC / Taiwan |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 28, 2026 | TSMC / Taiwan | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Lisa Su say “TSMC / Taiwan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Lisa Su said “TSMC / Taiwan” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 28, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Lisa Su says “TSMC / Taiwan” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lisa Su: ‘TSMC / Taiwan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/lisa-su/words/taiwan-or-tsmc (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lisa-su&word=taiwan%20%2F%20tsmc · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lisa-su&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP