Will Elon Musk say “Billion” 10+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Billion” 10+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 27, 2025.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (10+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Billion 10+
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
It's narrow, exactly. So um but if you if you have billions of humanoid robots, I think there will be the I think I think…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | Billion 10+ |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Billion 10+”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Billion” 10+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 27, 2025.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Billion 10+” next time?
- 18%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Billion 10+’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/billion-10plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=billion%20%2810%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP