Will Bill Gates say “Vaccine / Vaccination”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Bill Gates did not say “Vaccine / Vaccination” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 13% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 27, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Bill Gates
Vaccine / Vaccination
- Probability
- 13% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vaccine / Vaccination |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Vaccine / Vaccination | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Bill Gates say “Vaccine / Vaccination”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Bill Gates did not say “Vaccine / Vaccination” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Bill Gates says “Vaccine / Vaccination” next time?
- 13%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Bill Gates: ‘Vaccine / Vaccination’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/bill-gates/words/vaccination-or-vaccine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=bill-gates&word=vaccination%20%2F%20vaccine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=bill-gates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP