Pete Buttigieg: Speech, Aug 21, 2024

Wed, Aug 21SpeechHistory onlyPete Buttigieg

Updated

Markets

14 words · 0 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Antisemitism No–new new word, no probability yet–
Ceasefire No–new new word, no probability yet–
Climate change No–new new word, no probability yet–
Couch No–new new word, no probability yet–
Crypto/Bitcoin No–new new word, no probability yet–
Delta No–new new word, no probability yet–
Gay No–new new word, no probability yet–
Inflation No–new new word, no probability yet–
Infrastructure No–new new word, no probability yet–
Manufacturing No–new new word, no probability yet–
Marriage No–new new word, no probability yet–
Mayor 2+ timesNo–new new word, no probability yet–
Trans No–new new word, no probability yet–
Weird/Weirdo No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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