Gretchen Whitmer: Keynote, Jan 22, 2026
Kalshi What will the US Governors say during the WEF?
Markets
14 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bipartisan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infrastructure | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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