Will Andy Beshear say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Andy Beshear said “Iran / Iranian” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 11, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Andy Beshear
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 58% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Andy Beshear say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Andy Beshear said “Iran / Iranian” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 11, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Andy Beshear says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Andy Beshear: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/andy-beshear/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=andy-beshear&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=andy-beshear&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP