What is the probability “Israel / Netanyahu” is said on World News Tonight next time?

50%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Israel / Netanyahu” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Israel / Netanyahu” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 28, 2026, “Israel / Netanyahu” was said on World News Tonight in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 27, 2026.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 15, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 28, 2026, 09:34 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Israel / Netanyahu

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? · said 14 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: any host or reporter

14 counted.

Speaker not labelledreporter0:26In transcript

…early voting already. Also breaking is there about to be a political earthquake in Israel for Netanyahu. And the major news tonight involving Ted Bundy.

Speaker not labelledreporter0:47In transcript

…the early vote shows already tonight. Also breaking the results coming in from Israel at this hour are Benjamin Netanyahu's days as prime minister numbered.

Every match in the transcript