What is the probability “Ballroom / Pool” is said on World News Tonight next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Ballroom / Pool” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Ballroom / Pool” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Ballroom / Pool” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.

45%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 22:23 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Ballroom / Pool

Probability: 45% · n=2
Settled: 2/2 (100%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026 · 19:22In transcript

EIGHT FINALISTS HAVE BEEN CHOSEN FROM A POOL OF MORE THAN 5000 EAGER APPLICANTS.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026 · 4:44In transcript

…GIANT HAILSTONES SHATTERED HER WINDSHIELD. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL BOMBARDING THE SWIMMING POOL IN PHOENIX. ACCUWEATHER STORM CHASER REED TIMMER TRACKING TORNADO WARNED STORMS IN…