Will “Unemployment” be said 5+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Unemployment” was said 5+ times at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2024 (50%), most recently on Dec 18, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 5 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Unemployment 5+ times
- Probability
- 52% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…investment—both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up…
…expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2024 | Unemployment 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 12 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | unemployment | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Unemployment 5+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Unemployment” was said 5+ times at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2024 (50%), most recently on Dec 18, 2024.
- What is the probability “Unemployment 5+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Unemployment 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/unemployment-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=unemployment%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP