What is the probability Christine Lagarde says “Recession” next time?

26%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Christine Lagarde say “Recession”?

Name: Christine Lagarde: “Recession” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Christine Lagarde did not say “Recession” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 31, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

26%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 14:39 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Christine Lagarde

Recession

Probability: 26% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Christine Lagarde yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Christine Lagarde say on Face the Nation? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will EU Central Bank President say during the Press Conference? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Feb 23, 2026	Recession	Kalshi	No
Oct 31, 2025	Recession	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Christine Lagarde say “Recession”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Christine Lagarde did not say “Recession” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 31, 2025.
What is the probability Christine Lagarde says “Recession” next time?: 26%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Christine Lagarde: ‘Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/christine-lagarde/words/recession (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=christine-lagarde&word=recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=christine-lagarde&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP