Grammys
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 25 word markets on Grammys since 2025, on 23 different words.
History Wall
1–23 of 23, most settled first| Word | Nov 7 ’25awards show | Feb 2 ’26latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein | Settled yes: Epstein, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled yes: Epstein, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 52%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump | Settled yes: Trump, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled yes: Trump, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 52%n=2 from settlement history |
| Billie | Settled yes: Billie, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Billie, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Crypto.com | Not listed: Crypto / Crypto.com, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled yes: Crypto / Crypto.com, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Lady / Gaga | Not listed: Lady / Gaga, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled yes: Lady / Gaga, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE | Settled yes: ICE, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: ICE, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Justin | Settled yes: Justin, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Justin, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Kendrick | Not listed: Kendrick, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled yes: Kendrick, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Super Bowl | Settled yes: Super Bowl, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Super Bowl, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Taylor | Settled yes: Taylor, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Taylor, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin | Settled no: Bitcoin, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Bitcoin, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Disney | Settled no: Disney, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Disney, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Drake | Not listed: Drake, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: Drake, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gay / Queer | Settled no: Gay / Queer, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Gay / Queer, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gender | Settled no: Gender, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Gender, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: ICE / National Guard, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Kanye / Ye / Yeezy | Not listed: Kanye / Ye / Yeezy, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: Kanye / Ye / Yeezy, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oscars | Settled no: Oscars, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: Oscars, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ozempic | Not listed: Ozempic, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: Ozempic, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Slap / Slaps / Slapped | Not listed: Slap / Slaps / Slapped, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: Slap / Slaps / Slapped, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Taylor Swift | Not listed: Taylor Swift, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Settled no: Taylor Swift, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| The Chicks | Settled no: The Chicks, Nov 7 ’25 awards show | Not listed: The Chicks, Feb 2 ’26 awards show | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Awards showWhat will Trevor Noah say during the Grammy Awards? | no transcript | 12 | 5 yes · 7 no | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Awards showWhat will be said during the Grammys? | no transcript | 15 | 7 yes · 6 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Grammys: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/grammys (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/grammys · words: /api/v1/history?entity=grammys · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP