Will American Airlines say “Iran / Middle East”?
American Airlines did not say “Iran / Middle East” on its Oct 22, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, American Airlines did not say “Iran / Middle East” on any of the 2 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 19% (n=2, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 14¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
American Airlines
Iran / Middle East
- Probability
- 19% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last calls
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…a revenue intake perspective, prior to any of the hostilities in the Middle East that drove fuel where it is. So there's something going on…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…improvement. Transatlantic, we had outstanding performance in the second quarter. As the Iran conflict was heating up, that was during a pretty decent booking window…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Iran / Middle East |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Iran / Middle East | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did American Airlines say “Iran / Middle East” on its last earnings call?
- American Airlines did not say “Iran / Middle East” on its Oct 22, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does American Airlines say “Iran / Middle East”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, American Airlines did not say “Iran / Middle East” on any of the 2 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 23, 2026.
- What is the probability American Airlines says “Iran / Middle East” next time?
- 19%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “American Airlines: ‘Iran / Middle East’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AAL/words/iran-or-middle-east (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=american-airlines&word=iran%20%2F%20middle%20east · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=american-airlines&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP