Tucker Carlson: Speech, Dec 18, 2025
Polymarket What will Tucker Carlson say at AmericaFest on December 18?
Markets
20 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| America First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drug | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foreign Policy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free Speech | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| House / Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Racist / Racism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime Change | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border / Immigration 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Censor / Censorship | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit / Buy Now Pay Later | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat / Democratic 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Loan / Debt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ted Cruz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-tucker-carlson-say-at-americafest-on-december-18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP