MrBeast: Episode, May 2, 2026
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
26 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar 5+ times | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Apple | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thank You | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Feastable / Feastables | No | 38%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Chocolate | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Insane | No | 35%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / Lamborghini | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Eliminate / Eliminated | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Africa | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Calendar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Huge amount | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Impressive | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Influencer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Movie | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| School | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sport | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Super Mario Galaxy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Technology | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| This Year | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Donate / Donated | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Island | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Charity | No | 15%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-mrbeast-say-during-his-next-youtube-video-185 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP