Kamala Harris: Speech, Sep 29, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?
Markets
12 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-time Homebuyer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 3+ times | Yes | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Opportunity Economy 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Black | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle Class 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New Deal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trickle-down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 3+ times | No | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 10%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kamala-say-during-nevada-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP