Kamala Harris: Speech, Aug 22, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
Markets
29 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not going back | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donald Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oakland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Project 2025 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Abortion | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Antisemitism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monkeypox | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Context | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weird/Weirdo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Unburdened | No | 14%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America 5+ times | open | – | – |
| China | open | – | – |
| Coconut | open | – | – |
| Couch | open | – | – |
| Hope | open | – | – |
| Joe Biden | open | – | – |
| Palestine | open | – | – |
| Price control | open | – | – |
| Venn diagram | open | – | – |
| Woman 3+ times | open | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP