Kamala Harris: Debate, Sep 10, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala say at the debate?
Markets
19 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Not Going Back | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine/Palestinian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Project 2025 | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | Yes | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JD Vance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| McDonald's | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Convicted Felon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| I'm speaking | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Unrealized | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Wall | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weird | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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