Kamala Harris: Interview, Oct 16, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala Harris say during Fox interview?
Markets
17 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gun | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Project 2025 | No | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine/Palestinian | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Black men | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marijuana | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medical records | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Opportunity 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plagiarize | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roe/Wade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | No | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 3+ times | No | 16%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 10%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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