All-In Podcast: Episode, Jan 9, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast?
Markets
18 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden / Kamala | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Interest Rate | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Google / Deepmind | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Groq | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jensen / Huang | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scott / Bessent | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tequila | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-132 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP