Saturday Night Live: Episode, Dec 21, 2025
Kalshi What will Ariana Grande say during Saturday Night Live?
Markets
10 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wicked | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christmas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| New York City | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Pete / Davidson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 21%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Grammy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ozempic / Anorexia | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cynthia / Erivo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Witch | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSNLMENTION-25DEC21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP