The Briefing with Jen Psaki: Episode, Feb 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Keith Ellison say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
10 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / Border | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cooperate / Cooperation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigating / Investigation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Homan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unconstitutional / Constitution | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPSAKIMENTION-26FEB13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP