John Fetterman: Interview, Apr 11, 2026

Sat, Apr 11InterviewHistory onlyJohn Fetterman

Updated

Markets

12 words · 5 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Bipartisan Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Iran Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Israel / Israeli Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Republican Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability No–new new word, no probability yet–
Election No–new new word, no probability yet–
Epstein No–new new word, no probability yet–
ICE / TSA No–new new word, no probability yet–
National Security No–new new word, no probability yet–
Shutdown / Shut Down No–new new word, no probability yet–
Trump No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR11B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP