Reza Pahlavi: Panel, Mar 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Reza Pahlavi say during his CPAC discussion?
Markets
11 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace / Peaceful | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transition / Transitional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26MAR28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP