OpenAI: Episode, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will OpenAI say during their livestream?
Markets
13 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: company speakers Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Code / Coding | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Codex | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DALL-E | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Agent / Agentic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AGI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Claude / Anthropic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IPO / Public | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| LLM | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sora | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR21B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP