Mehmet Oz: Keynote, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Dr. Oz say during Semafor World Economy 2026?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy / RFK | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obese / Obesity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TrumpRX | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chronic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP