Melania Trump: Keynote, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during the Fostering the Future Summit?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| History / Historic | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Lead / Leader / Leadership | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Privacy / Security | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| School | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Education | Yes | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Take It Down | Yes | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Barron | No | 24%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Donald | No | 20%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26MAR25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP