Melania Trump: Speech, Mar 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her United Nations Address?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Privacy / Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace / Peaceful | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Unify / Unity | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Take it Down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Robot / Robotics | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Donald | No | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Russia | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26MAR03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP