# Mike Johnson (mike-johnson) · speech 2026-09-10 · 13 words · K k:KXJOHNSONMENTION-26SEP10 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:40:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-10 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXJOHNSONMENTION-26SEP10 ({word} = w of K rows): If Mike Johnson says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Election / Midterm	election|midterm	1	0	0			0.68	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	1	1	1	Y	0.63	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.57	hist	no
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.54	hist	no
SAVE America Act / SAVE Act	save act|save america act	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.54	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.5	hist	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	1	0	0	n	0.49	hist	yes
Border	border	1	0	0			0.58	prior	yes
Socialism / Socialist	socialism|socialist	1	0	0			0.58	prior	yes
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	0	0			0.58	prior	no
Talarico	talarico	1	0	0			0.58	prior	no
Tax Cut / Cut Tax	cut tax|tax cut	1	0	0			0.58	prior	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	0	0			0.58	prior	no