Thomas Massie: Hearing, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Thomas Massie say during the hearing on The Second Amendment?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Background Check | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Concealed Carry | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitutional / Constitution | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infringe / Infringed / Infringement | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ATF | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kentucky | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Self Defense | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote / Voter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26APR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP