Congressional hearings, Apr 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Hearing on Modernized Health Care?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 76%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cancer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chronic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obese / Obesity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Processed Food | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rural | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Child / Children | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peptide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pharmaceutical | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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