Congressional hearings, Jan 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the House Committee on Oversight hearing?
Markets
15 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accountable / Accountability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Death Master / Death Data | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| PPP / Paycheck Protection Program | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privacy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Technology / Innovation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Minnesota / Walz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Covid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Self Reporting / Self Reported | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26JAN14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP