Candace Owens: Episode, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Candace Owens say during her livestream?
Markets
18 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erika | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Loomer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Zionist | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Low IQ | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Propaganda | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical Left | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCANDACEMENTION-26APR21B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP