Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Rally, Jul 18, 2026
Kalshi What will AOC say during her Detroit rally?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abdul / El-Sayed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza / Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing / Rent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oligarch / Oligarchy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare / Health Care | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXAOCMENTION-26JUL18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP