Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Speech, Jan 2, 2026
Kalshi What will AOC say during Mamdani's inauguration?
Markets
10 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fascism / Fascist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grocery | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXAOCMENTION-26JAN02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP