Intuitive Surgical: FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026

On its Oct 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), Intuitive Surgical said 11 of the 14 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.

Updated

Markets

14 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityClipMarket
Da Vinci 5 3+ timesYes3030✓88%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 4:04, Da Vinci 5 (3+ times)–
Ion 3+ timesYes1717✓90%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 2:16, Ion (3+ times)–
China Yes78✓90%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 7:10, China–
Reimbursement Yes55✓86%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:32, Reimbursement–
Hernia Yes55✓79%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:21, Hernia–
Tariff Yes44✓85%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 12:59, Tariff–
FDA Yes44✓70%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 8:11, FDA–
International Yes33✓82%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:04, International–
Telepresence Yes22✓65%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 9:10, Telepresence–
Medicare / Medicaid Yes11✓59%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 15:49, Medicare / Medicaid–
Autonomy Yes11✓39%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 8:21, Autonomy–
Acquire / Acquired / Acquisition No00✓73%transcripts from the transcript model–
Supply Chain No00✓58%transcripts from the transcript model–
GLP-1 No00✓57%transcripts from the transcript model–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 13:45 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Speaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

1 match for “Autonomy”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.

Dave Rosacompanyprepared · 8:23Hear it 8:17, Dave Rosa

…eject and multi-arm targeting, both of which bring incremental efficiency and surgeon autonomy to procedures. Surgeons have reported that these innovations support extending access to…

Where the listed words were said

Dave Rosacompany“Da Vinci 5 (3+)” · prepared · 4:06Hear it 4:02, Dave Rosa

da Vinci system placements increased 28% worldwide, with da Vinci 5 and SP accounting for 65% of global placements. Installations of XiR and X more…

Dave Rosacompany“Ion (3+)” · prepared · 2:18Hear it 2:12, Dave Rosa

…quarter for Intuitive, with broad-based adoption across our multi-port, single port, and Ion platforms. In Q3, total procedures increased 15%, driven by 14% growth in…

Dave Rosacompany“China” · prepared · 7:12Hear it 7:12, Dave Rosa

…quarter with 42% procedure growth, surpassing 200,000 cumulative da Vinci procedures. In China, the operating environment remains challenging. To support expected long-term growth in Asia,…

Dave Rosacompany“Reimbursement” · prepared · 6:34Hear it 6:28, Dave Rosa

…build the foundation of market access country by country through regulatory clearances, reimbursement, training, and clinical and economic validation. da Vinci placements outside the U.S.…

Jamie Samathcompany“Hernia” · prepared · 16:45Hear it 16:39, Jamie Samath

…37% in Q2 and 34% in Q1, with the strongest growth in hernia repair and cholecystectomy. Benign procedures represent over a quarter of our international…

Jamie Samathcompany“Tariff” · prepared · 13:01Hear it 12:55, Jamie Samath

…operating margin was 42% of revenue, or 41% excluding a one-time pre-tax tariff refund of $28 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew 25% to $3…

Dave Rosacompany“FDA” · prepared · 8:52Hear it 8:50, Dave Rosa

…version of the da Vinci 5 handheld endoscope. In August, we received FDA 510(k) clearance for our foundational non-commercial next-generation flexible robotic endoscope system for…

Dave Rosacompany“International” · prepared · 6:06Hear it 6:05, Dave Rosa

…establish and expand their da Vinci programs. As of Q3, nearly 4,000 international customers have a da Vinci program, and nearly 25% operate two or…

Dave Rosacompany“Telepresence” · prepared · 9:12Hear it 9:10, Dave Rosa

Adoption of Intuitive Telepresence continues to increase, with surgeons using these sessions to share techniques and to scale training in ways that were not previously…

Jamie Samathcompany“Medicare / Medicaid” · prepared · 15:51Hear it 15:45, Jamie Samath

…we continue to monitor the impacts from lower ACA enrollment, changes to Medicaid eligibility, and potential changes to 340B. Outside the U.S., total and da…

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