Intuitive Surgical: FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026

On its Oct 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), Intuitive Surgical said 11 of the 14 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.

Updated

Markets

14 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityClipMarket
Da Vinci 5 3+ timesYes3030✓88%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 4:04, Da Vinci 5 (3+ times)–
Ion 3+ timesYes1717✓90%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 2:16, Ion (3+ times)–
China Yes78✓90%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 7:10, China–
Reimbursement Yes55✓86%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:32, Reimbursement–
Hernia Yes55✓79%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:21, Hernia–
Tariff Yes44✓85%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 12:59, Tariff–
FDA Yes44✓70%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 8:11, FDA–
International Yes33✓82%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:04, International–
Telepresence Yes22✓65%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 9:10, Telepresence–
Medicare / Medicaid Yes11✓59%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 15:49, Medicare / Medicaid–
Autonomy Yes11✓39%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 8:21, Autonomy–
Acquire / Acquired / Acquisition No00✓73%transcripts from the transcript model–
Supply Chain No00✓58%transcripts from the transcript model–
GLP-1 No00✓57%transcripts from the transcript model–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 13:45 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Speaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

Where the listed words were said

Dave Rosacompany“Da Vinci 5 (3+)” · prepared · 4:06Hear it 4:02, Dave Rosa

da Vinci system placements increased 28% worldwide, with da Vinci 5 and SP accounting for 65% of global placements. Installations of XiR and X more…

Dave Rosacompany“Ion (3+)” · prepared · 2:18Hear it 2:12, Dave Rosa

…quarter for Intuitive, with broad-based adoption across our multi-port, single port, and Ion platforms. In Q3, total procedures increased 15%, driven by 14% growth in…

Dave Rosacompany“China” · prepared · 7:12Hear it 7:12, Dave Rosa

…quarter with 42% procedure growth, surpassing 200,000 cumulative da Vinci procedures. In China, the operating environment remains challenging. To support expected long-term growth in Asia,…

Dave Rosacompany“Reimbursement” · prepared · 6:34Hear it 6:28, Dave Rosa

…build the foundation of market access country by country through regulatory clearances, reimbursement, training, and clinical and economic validation. da Vinci placements outside the U.S.…

Jamie Samathcompany“Hernia” · prepared · 16:45Hear it 16:39, Jamie Samath

…37% in Q2 and 34% in Q1, with the strongest growth in hernia repair and cholecystectomy. Benign procedures represent over a quarter of our international…

Jamie Samathcompany“Tariff” · prepared · 13:01Hear it 12:55, Jamie Samath

…operating margin was 42% of revenue, or 41% excluding a one-time pre-tax tariff refund of $28 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew 25% to $3…

Dave Rosacompany“FDA” · prepared · 8:13Hear it 8:12, Dave Rosa

…in the U.S., Europe, India, Japan, and Korea. During Q3, we received FDA 510(k) clearance on da Vinci 5 for surgeon-initiated tool eject and multi-arm…

Dave Rosacompany“International” · prepared · 6:06Hear it 6:05, Dave Rosa

…establish and expand their da Vinci programs. As of Q3, nearly 4,000 international customers have a da Vinci program, and nearly 25% operate two or…

Dave Rosacompany“Telepresence” · prepared · 9:12Hear it 9:10, Dave Rosa

Adoption of Intuitive Telepresence continues to increase, with surgeons using these sessions to share techniques and to scale training in ways that were not previously…

Jamie Samathcompany“Medicare / Medicaid” · prepared · 15:51Hear it 15:45, Jamie Samath

…we continue to monitor the impacts from lower ACA enrollment, changes to Medicaid eligibility, and potential changes to 340B. Outside the U.S., total and da…

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