Fox News Sunday, October 4, 2026
On the Oct 4, 2026 episode of Fox News Sunday, 5 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
16 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court | Yes | 7 | 26 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm / Election | Yes | 6 | 26 | ✓ | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 1 | 22 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 2 | 21 | ✓ | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
21 matches for “Trump”; counts and timings only, no caption text.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fox-news-sunday:2026-10-04:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fox-news-sunday:2026-10-04:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP