PayPal (PYPL): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 3, 2026
On its Feb 3, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), PayPal said 3 of the 14 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biometric | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 77%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| E-Commerce | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 76%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Perplexity | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Unprofitable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 73%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stablecoin / Stable Coin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 73%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| College | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cash Back / Cashback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Bank | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Blue Owl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulation / Regulator | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Users”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…time. The result is a more engaged and healthier consumer base. Power users, which are consumer accounts that transact more than 100 times per year,…
…In December, branded checkout TPV rose by mid-single digits year-over-year for U.K. users enrolled in PayPal Plus and their overall PayPal TPV increased year-over-year compared…
…consumer base, and that's indicative of that, the strength in PayPal power users, the idea that we're really going for more and more depth of…
…into where and how we win, as Steve talked before, about power users versus active loyalists and just understanding our consumer cohorts better. We know…
Where the listed words were said
…than we anticipated, which has slowed our progress. Additionally, the combination of biometric adoption and competitive presentment have proven critical to branded checkout performance. So…
…has proven more demanding than we anticipated, presenting both challenges and opportunities. E-commerce growth has been challenging in key verticals and markets. Competitive intensity has…
…purchase items within the chat. We went live with agentic purchasing through Perplexity ahead of Thanksgiving, and we are now also live on Microsoft Co-Pilot.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/paypal:2026-02-03:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=paypal:2026-02-03:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP