PayPal (PYPL): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 3, 2026
On its Feb 3, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), PayPal said 3 of the 14 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biometric | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 77%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| E-Commerce | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 76%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Perplexity | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Unprofitable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 73%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stablecoin / Stable Coin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 73%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| College | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cash Back / Cashback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Bank | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Blue Owl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulation / Regulator | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
58 matches for “Merchant”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…stagnant and underinvested in for years, creating a new value proposition for merchants and consumers, but we were too optimistic about how quickly we could…
…the slowdown. First, U.S. retail weakness. We saw pressure across our retail merchant portfolio, particularly among lower and middle income consumers. While part of this…
…our delivery process has started with building a better product and expecting merchants to adopt at scale because of conversion benefits. The reality is our…
…of the year was slower than we planned. Our analysis of our merchant base, competitive dynamics and where we are seeing the strongest traction has…
…a frictionless consumer experience through biometric and pass key adoption and that merchants have upgraded to our target experiences. On presentment, we need competitive placement,…
Where the listed words were said
…with strategic merchants and partners at the same time that we drive biometric enrollment. As discussed before, biometric authentication amplifies the impact of our paysheet…
…has proven more demanding than we anticipated, presenting both challenges and opportunities. E-commerce growth has been challenging in key verticals and markets. Competitive intensity has…
…purchase items within the chat. We went live with agentic purchasing through Perplexity ahead of Thanksgiving, and we are now also live on Microsoft Co-Pilot.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/paypal:2026-02-03:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=paypal:2026-02-03:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP