American Express (AXP): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 30, 2026
On its Jan 30, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), American Express said 4 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NII / Net Interest Income | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Millennial | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 92%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Lounge | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 81%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Currency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dunkin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stablecoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Coinbase | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Spending Trend | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Rate Cap / 10% Cap | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Restaurant”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…customer base. Growth in airline and lodging spend was largely stable and restaurant spending was up 9% once again this quarter. Our dining assets are…
…to go out there and spend. I mean, if you look at restaurant spending, for example, for the quarter, it's up 9%. It very well…
…the board, and you just see what's going on with Resy, our restaurant spending is up 20%. So all of the metrics that we look…
…been really great for us as you see the differential in overall restaurant spending and overall restaurant Resy spending, which is not only good for…
Where the listed words were said
…full year. Momentum was broad-based across revenue lines with net card fees, NII, and service fees and other revenue all growing at double-digit rates. Net…
…Air France KLM. We continue to build our membership assets with new lounges, the expansion of our hotel network, and the momentum we're generating from…
…count by 7% since then. While maintaining capital well in excess of regulatory minimum levels. This demonstrates our confidence in the sustainability of earnings generated…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/american-express:2026-01-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=american-express:2026-01-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP