American Express (AXP): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 30, 2026
On its Jan 30, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), American Express said 4 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NII / Net Interest Income | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Millennial | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 92%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Lounge | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 81%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Currency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dunkin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stablecoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Coinbase | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Spending Trend | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Rate Cap / 10% Cap | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
1 match for “Millennial”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…from younger card members from younger customers also continued. As of Q4, millennial and Gen Z customers now make up the largest share of US…
Where the listed words were said
…full year. Momentum was broad-based across revenue lines with net card fees, NII, and service fees and other revenue all growing at double-digit rates. Net…
…Air France KLM. We continue to build our membership assets with new lounges, the expansion of our hotel network, and the momentum we're generating from…
…count by 7% since then. While maintaining capital well in excess of regulatory minimum levels. This demonstrates our confidence in the sustainability of earnings generated…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/american-express:2026-01-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=american-express:2026-01-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP